The AI IPO Race Has One Runner Left This Year

For most of 2026 the question was which frontier lab would list first. By mid-September the answer is settled by default. OpenAI has ruled out this year. Anthropic is preparing what several investors expect to be the largest initial public offering ever, and it will run alone, into the final weeks before the US midterm elections.

Anthropic's timetable

Reuters reported on 4 September that Anthropic is expected to begin marketing its IPO in mid-October at the earliest and complete the listing days before the November midterms, with the public prospectus, previously expected the week of 7 September, now not expected until late September. Anthropic declined to comment. As part of the process the company is finalising a $15 billion revolving credit facility; Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley leads it with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citi in prominent roles, that top-tier banks were asked to lend about $1.25 billion each, and that the facility is up from a roughly $2.5 billion line last year.

On 11 September Reuters reported that Anthropic is in talks to bring Nvidia in as an anchor investor, that it seeks to raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation of about $2 trillion, and that Nvidia is considering up to $10 billion. Plans could change. The Wall Street Journal reported the same $100 billion and $2 trillion figures on 8 September, noting they would top the records set by SpaceX's June listing, which Reuters puts at a $1.77 trillion valuation and $86.2 billion raised.

The numbers behind it

Reuters reports that Anthropic raised $65 billion in May at a $965 billion post-money valuation, that its run rate climbed above $65 billion by the end of July from about $9 billion at the end of 2025, and that company projections point to roughly $190 billion to $200 billion of revenue in 2028. CNBC, citing an investor update, reported the $65 billion July run rate as a sevenfold increase year on year and preliminary second-quarter revenue of $11.5 billion. Crunchbase counts about $125 billion raised privately since 2021.

OpenAI waits

OpenAI's position has shifted within a month. On 19 August, CNBC reported, chief financial officer Sarah Friar told an all-hands meeting that OpenAI 'will be a public company in 2027' or sooner if the business 'continues to inflect', citing the $122 billion raised in March and a revenue run rate up 35% quarter to date. On 12 September Sam Altman told Fortune: 'I actually think that, given everything happening with safety, right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public, and we don't feel pressure on that.' Pressed on timing, he said 'not 2026'. Bloomberg confirmed a listing would not take place until 2027.

The same weekend, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published an essay calling on labs to slow capability gains; Altman replied that he agreed on the need to pace the frontier. Safety is now the public language of both companies' capital-markets decisions, which is a new thing for a prospectus to have to explain.

Who benefits, who is at risk

Beneficiaries: the four banks on the Anthropic deal, Nvidia if it anchors, and existing investors who get a public mark. At risk: a market absorbing a $100 billion raise weeks after SpaceX's $86 billion, in the shadow of an election; and Anthropic itself, whose stated commitment to pacing capability will be judged quarterly by public shareholders.