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Research

Deep Dive

Long-form intelligence. Each Deep Dive contains an executive summary, key findings, a timeline, a market map, the technology explained, risks, opportunities, what happens next and sources.

The first Deep Dives are in production. Until they publish, the latest analysis from the desk is below.

Science

OpenAI Says Its Models Disproved the Exponential Time Hypothesis

OpenAI published three claimed results on 26 October 2026, including a refutation of a conjecture that hundreds of complexity papers assume to be true. None has been peer-reviewed, and the group checking the refutation is led by the two men who proposed the conjecture.

4 min read
Business

Anthropic's S-1 Shows $16.3bn of Revenue and a $693m Loss

The Claude developer applied on 26 October 2026 to list on Nasdaq as ANT. Revenue for the six months to 30 June was 14 times the year before, and almost 90 per cent of the $80.7bn net loss is a non-cash charge for the rising value of its own convertible notes.

4 min read
AI

DeepSeek and MiniMax Clear China's New AI Export Register

Beijing's draft catalogue would licence model weights above 10^26 training operations or 2 trillion parameters. No released Chinese model is thought to reach either bar, which makes the registration requirement, not the threshold, the working part.

4 min read
Climate

The IPCC Has No Date for AR7 and No Budget for 2027

Jim Skea suspended the panel's 65th session in Addis Ababa on 16 October 2026 with both items unresolved. On Monday he said consensus on the schedule is vital, and nearly 120 of the report's 664 authors published an open letter saying they will deliver it anyway.

4 min read
AI

Google's Argon Tops One Benchmark League and Trails Another

Gemini 4 Argon went on general sale on 13 October 2026 at an introductory $2 and $10 per million tokens. That rate doubles on 1 December, and the two independent leaderboards that rank it disagree about where it sits.

3 min read
The Parallax Brief

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